WHAT BIG DATA, NOT ASSUMPTIONS, CAN TELL US ABOUT GOLF TRENDS. GATHER WHITE PAPER #6

Confirmation bias is a deeply human trait. Whether its personal, political, or economic, we hear what we want to hear.

Confirmation bias.

Definition:

“The tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs or theories.”

Business leaders and confirmation bias

Like everyone else, business leaders are susceptible to confirmation bias. When considering business strategies and solutions, confirmation bias means leadership teams may discount information suggesting their plan is flawed, and only process evidence congruent with their opinion. Business leaders and strategists need to acknowledge and be aware of confirmation bias – and keep it in check. Ignoring biases may result in decision-making being too heavily influenced by the opportunities they want to see, rather than reality.

Harnessing big data

It is 2022. When we want to find services, products, or even diagnose an illness, we Google it. Consequently, Google data can provide a wealth of information for understanding trends – what are consumers seeking, what interests them, or what problems are people trying to solve. Golfers and golf industry professionals are no exception. They turn to Google for answers to golf questions, and to find solutions to problems. Therefore, the golf industry can use big data to check its confirmation biases by comparing assumptions about what it thinks golfers want, to what golfers are searching for. Big data gives us a chance to step back and get a big-picture view of golfers’ behavior.

Four examples of what big data, not assumptions, can tell us about golf trends

Here are four common assumptions about the golf industry. Are they right? Or should they be questioned. We tested them against Google search data.

Search parameters (years): 2004 – present (the longest range possible)

Search parameters (location): Global

Assumption 1:
Traditional golf club memberships are dead

Credible golf sources tell us that the traditional golf club membership model is rigid and unsustainable. It is assumed that the futuristic golf membership model will give players more flexibility and require less commitment. Meaning, not a traditional golf club membership. That may be true for certain demographics of players, but if we look at the Google search data, it tells a very different story.

Let’s start with the new-kid-on-the-block when it comes to golf club memberships, flexible ones. The search volume for flexible golf membership peaked in 2005. It has trailed off dramatically since then.

There may still be a significant amount of people looking for flexible golf memberships. But data trends don’t suggest a paradigm shift.

In contrast, more people searched for golf club membership in 2020-2021 than at any time since 2004. Of course, the pandemic increased the interest in all-things golf – including club membership.

But as this trend line for golf club membership suggests, traditional golf clubs are far from dead.

Assumption 2:
It’s time for public golf to shine

Just because golf club memberships are in heavy demand, it doesn’t mean there can’t also be interest in public golf courses. The pandemic brought new golfers to the game which should increase interest in public golf, right? This isn’t a zero-sum game after all.

But despite these assumptions, search trends for public golf course have declined since a peak in 2004.

Combining assumptions 1 and 2:
Golfers value flexibility over commitment

Golfers may philosophically say that they want more flexibility in their golf-playing options, but it is not what they are searching for.

We compared searches for golf club memberships and public golf courses in the same graph to get an overview of the type of experience people are looking for based on search terms. In 2004, Google was reporting more searches for public golf courses than golf club memberships. By 2013, the search volumes for both were similar. And by 2022, that trend had reversed.

Assumption 3:
Technology will increase the demand for online instruction

No doubt, technology has made the relationship between instructors / coaches and golfers more elastic. A golfer can now record his or her swing using an app and send it to a coach for feedback. Golfers can also set up remote, real-time sessions with any coach in the world (theoretically!). But is this what golfers are looking for online?

Data suggests no. As technology has improved, the search volume for online golf lessons has declined. At the same time, searches for golf lessons near me has increased dramatically.

Note. This doesn’t mean that coaches and instructors cannot leverage technology to provide remote and online programs. There may be enough golfers looking for a remote coaching relationship to sustain that business model (more data would be needed if this is your business plan). Alternatively, remote, or online technology becomes of interest once a relationship is established between the golfer and instructor / coach.

The trend line for golf lessons near me, however, suggests that the pandemic may not only have showed us the value of golf, but the value of in-person interactions.

Assumption 4:
Golf has a workforce shortage

Anecdotal experiences and industry publications suggest that golf is struggling to recruit and retain a workforce. Data supports this position.

Although a career in golf can provide a lifetime of satisfaction, it may not be as popular a career choice as it used to be. As Gather found in White Paper #2, almost 50% of the current workforce has considered leaving the industry in the last 12 months.

The golf work force is often looking for something golf doesn’t offer. That is: competitive pay, a career path, and a flexible work schedule.

As golf operators have experienced in the last two years, it’s hard to reconcile an increase in golf demand and a decrease in workforce interest. Google search data won’t provide much solace that things will improve anytime soon. Search trends for career in golf peaked mid-noughties, held steady for a few years, then slowly declined. The search trend for how to become a PGA professional shows a similar pattern with a more noticeable decline in recent years.

If PGA professionals are the backbone of our industry, Houston, we have a problem.   

THE POSITIVES

The examples in this White Paper should, if nothing else, demonstrate the need to test assumptions before adopting them, investing in them, and making business and organizational decisions around them.

At the heart of all good decision making is recognizing confirmation bias – it isn’t a bad thing, it’s a human thing – and then looking at the data.

As golf leaders, it’s important to weigh up information that both contradicts and supports convenient narratives. If we do that, time and money will be invested in business opportunities, strategies, and solutions that yield ROI. Not unwanted surprises.

Ignore inconvenient data at your peril.

THREE takeaways…

1. It’s normal to have gut feelings about business decisions. And gut feelings can be right. But simply by underpinning strategy with trend analyses can reduce confirmation bias and increase the success rate of important decisions and future strategies.

2. None of us know what we don’t know. (And none of us will ever be all knowing!) Insights can help us fill knowledge gaps and inform better decisions.

3. If confirmation bias is inherent in us all, we need to build systems to counteract it. Do you have a process to filter out confirmation bias in decisions you and your team make?

#makebetterdecisions

QUESTIONS?
ASK US ANYTHING!